10-2-14 [Past] Peak Housing

by Mark on October 2, 2014

1) “Peak Housing”: The “Return to Normal” The take-away from last month’s housing data was that “the market was returning to normal”, which despite the persevering weakness, was viewed as a “great thing”. This overly-simplistic and flawed assumption was made, as the all-cash cohort demand dramatically cooled and distressed supply and sales plunged YoY. What […]

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Most think of the effects of foreclosures & short sales (distressed) only in the first derivative…that they are bad for housing and prices.  As such, bullish leaning headlines of plunging defaults, foreclosures and short sales over the past two years are everywhere, often. Some analysts actually follow and publish the data weekly presenting them as […]

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Let me preface this note by saying “I am a raging bull over houses”. I love real estate. On any given Sunday you can find me and my family touring open resale houses or new builder communities. My grammar school-aged kids love it too; especially the free cookies and peering into the beautifully staged rooms […]

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Happy Holidays. In order to achieve the greatest risk/reward asymmetry from the 2014 single-family housing stimulus “hangover”, or “reset”, happening right now you must change the way you think about this asset class.  When doing so, clarity emerges (at least to me). Things come into mind, such as; When other asset classes go through periods of excessive price appreciation or returns, most […]

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