Introduction: To preface this report, I consider the subject matter and my findings, herein, to be as important to contemporary housing and residential credit forecasting, as my early work in 2005/2006 on Bubble 1.0. If I have interpreted the following NAR data correctly in this presentation, they go a long way in identifying the “missing […]


Speechless: The Kardashian’s are now house flippers “No more neighbors, friends whose past Real Estate experience is renting an apartment or buying a starter house, or stay-at-home moms flipping houses locally;  young, flamboyant Realtors on reality, cable TV shows selling multi-million dollar trophy properties to those from abroad with briefcases of cash that until this […]


This “housing recovery” has not been about demand, rather a house-price super-inflation cycle, which is highly suspect, as price is a “lagging” indicator to demand. Existing Home demand has been extremely  weak since mid-2013, when rates popped and the unorthodox demand began to dry up.  “End-user” Existing home demand has been weak since 2007. Builder […]


Update 12-18-14 to 10-2-14 Peak Housing 2.0

by Mark on December 18, 2014

1) “Peak Housing”: The “Return to Normal” The take-away from the past quarter of housing data was that “the market was returning to normal”, which despite the persevering weakness, was viewed as a “great thing”.  This overly-simplistic and flawed assumption was made, as the all-cash cohort demand dramatically cooled and distressed supply and sales plunged […]