This “housing recovery” has not been about demand, rather a house-price super-inflation cycle, which is highly suspect, as price is a “lagging” indicator to demand. Existing Home demand has been extremely  weak since mid-2013, when rates popped and the unorthodox demand began to dry up.  “End-user” Existing home demand has been weak since 2007. Builder […]


Update 12-18-14 to 10-2-14 Peak Housing 2.0

by Mark on December 18, 2014

1) “Peak Housing”: The “Return to Normal” The take-away from the past quarter of housing data was that “the market was returning to normal”, which despite the persevering weakness, was viewed as a “great thing”.  This overly-simplistic and flawed assumption was made, as the all-cash cohort demand dramatically cooled and distressed supply and sales plunged […]


Most think of the effects of foreclosures & short sales (distressed) only in the first derivative…that they are bad for housing and prices.  As such, bullish leaning headlines of plunging defaults, foreclosures and short sales over the past two years are everywhere, often. Some analysts actually follow and publish the data weekly presenting them as […]


Let me preface this note by saying “I am a raging bull over houses”. I love real estate. On any given Sunday you can find me and my family touring open resale houses or new builder communities. My grammar school-aged kids love it too; especially the free cookies and peering into the beautifully staged rooms […]