Fantastic, everybody made some good money in the past 18 months thanks to the Fed’s aggressive monetary policy — or, to be specific Twist, QE3, and QE4 — which dropped mortgage rates from 5.5% to sub 3.5% almost overnight in late 2011.  This made it so everybody could instantly “afford” 20% more house.  Over the […]


10-8 Housing in Arizona – Hold the Press

by Mark on October 8, 2013

Media is running wild in AZ about a “prediction” I made of 20% “crash” in the state.    TV spot link: HERE First off, I am a huge AZ fan…spend lots of time there with my family.  I like virtually everything about it there other than the dead of summer. That said, I spent time there […]


The divergence between the depression level weakness in “post-surge” July and August New Home Sales volume vs. continuing sentiment, consensus opinion, Existing Sales volume, and especially last year’s consensus estimates of 500k to 600k New Home Sales for full-year 2013 is absolutely shocking.   This is more evidence we have come full-circle and now believe that […]


As we await builder earnings and New Home Sales data this week (you should all have a great handle on what to expect; if not let’s do a quick call), I thought it was a good time to put out some “New-Era Housing-U” material.  It’s amazing how age-old, old-school housing economics, metrics, and cliché’s still […]