Since the great crash I have always said the same thing about a housing “bottom”. That is, “it will happen when nobody is looking for it; when my Uncle Jack isn’t bragging at Thanksgiving dinner about how much money he made ‘flipping’ houses; when people treat houses as ‘shelter’ and not a speculative ‘trade’; and [...]
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Happy New Year. The following is a run-down of US housing and mortgage data for 2012 and themes for 2013. As has happened so many times since housing first went tits up, the cries of a durable “bottom” and recovery with “escape velocity” have gotten so far out ahead of the data and reality it [...]
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Nobody ever looks at the NSA results and internals. I do. Especially when the recent trend has been toward heavy, favorable seasonal adjustments in all sorts of data releases. The following charts illustrate clearly that consensus estimates and sentiment are far too exuberant based on the ‘muddle through” activity occuring in the resale market that I [...]
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(Another) Crash Alert….September Sacramento CA Home Sales Data Reveal a Full-Blown Sales Volume Collapse Taking Place Note, this note goes well with the previous post…10-9 Housing…”Recovery” Theme Inconsistencies Abound In our effort to scour the country in search for data that either confirm or deny the consensus opinion of a “durable recovery” with “escape velocity” I bring [...]
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