Happy Holidays. In order to achieve the greatest risk/reward asymmetry from the 2014 single-family housing stimulus “hangover”, or “reset”, happening right now you must change the way you think about this asset class.  When doing so, clarity emerges (at least to me). Things come into mind, such as; When other asset classes go through periods of excessive price appreciation or returns, most […]


Fantastic, everybody made some good money in the past 18 months thanks to the Fed’s aggressive monetary policy — or, to be specific Twist, QE3, and QE4 — which dropped mortgage rates from 5.5% to sub 3.5% almost overnight in late 2011.  This made it so everybody could instantly “afford” 20% more house.  Over the […]


10-8 Housing in Arizona – Hold the Press

by Mark on October 8, 2013

Media is running wild in AZ about a “prediction” I made of 20% “crash” in the state.    TV spot link: HERE First off, I am a huge AZ fan…spend lots of time there with my family.  I like virtually everything about it there other than the dead of summer. That said, I spent time there […]


The divergence between the depression level weakness in “post-surge” July and August New Home Sales volume vs. continuing sentiment, consensus opinion, Existing Sales volume, and especially last year’s consensus estimates of 500k to 600k New Home Sales for full-year 2013 is absolutely shocking.   This is more evidence we have come full-circle and now believe that […]