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A white paper just released on what really caused Housing Bubble 1.0 suggests it was the exact same things driving the housing market for the past 5-years (NOT “Subprime”).  That is, a bunch of MID-TO-HIGH QUALITY buyers & borrowers SPECULATING on rentals, second/vacation homes, and “flipping” – riding a wave of cheap and easy credit,
Bottom line:  High-End Real Estate at present sales & price levels – and developers, investors, owners, and brokers — just got scoped for a regulator kill-shot after 30% of captured transactions since the inception of the FinCEN program were found to be “suspicious”.   This is a problem because bubbles need an ever-larger pool of
Bottom line:  HOUSE PRICES and end-user, shelter-buyer fundamentals have never been further apart in key, economically significant cities. The two charts presented in this note highlight just how diverged HOUSE PRICES have become from end-user, shelter-buyer, employment and income fundamentals in the most populated, economically significant US cities. I maintain that HOUSE PRICES are always
As house prices and over-levered homeowners mark time ahead a “correction” of unknowable depth and breadth, which will bring the Fed and .gov back into the game at levels that make 2009-2015 look like an “under-reach”, the mortgage sector has undergone continual and dramatic GSE, FHA, and private label credit guideline easing, and technological innovation

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