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10-11-17…HANSON: 6-YEAR REFI-BOOM ON DECK?

HANSON: 6-YEAR REFI-BOOM ON DECK? As a long-time, humble observer and student of the markets, particularly credit, which rules the world, I have paid close attention to a factor I dubbed the “REFI CAPITAL CONVEYOR BELT“. In short, banks and lenders churning hundreds of billions in refi’s each quarter (to the Govt vis’ a vis
Bottom Line:  As mortgage demand plunges on the back of historical unaffordability and lender margins have rarely been worse, lenders continue to ease credit just like during the 2003 to 2006 Fed tightening cycle. The new Fannie quarterly lender survey came out today. It was bleak for lender volume and margins. Easing credit standards is
Bottom Lines:  The income required to buy a median priced builder house has NEVER been more diverged from fundamental, end-user, mortgage-needing, shelter-buyer cohort income (purchasing power), which is why builder demand and end-user resales remain anemic.   Meaningful sales growth with this affordability backdrop is impossible. A mean reversion – via surging wages, new era
A white paper just released on what really caused Housing Bubble 1.0 suggests it was the exact same things driving the housing market for the past 5-years (NOT “Subprime”).  That is, a bunch of MID-TO-HIGH QUALITY buyers & borrowers SPECULATING on rentals, second/vacation homes, and “flipping” – riding a wave of cheap and easy credit,
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