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Bottom Lines:  The past two times Homebuilder Sentiment hit a bubblicious 70 were at the peak of the tech & credit/housing bubbles. Historical divergence between ecstatic HB Sentiment and lethargic builder housing demand. ITB (pure-play builder stocks), and XHB (“housing-related”, retail-heavy names), haven’t been as diverged since the big crash. XHB has gone virtually nowhere
Some good charts to recap housing ytd. At this point, housing is just marking time with some segments still growing and some contracting. Demand is so weak this cycle vs past cycles, the impending down-cycle won’t as ugly on that front. But, I see no reason why prices won’t reattach to fundamental, end-user, shelter-buyer fundamentals
Fannie Mae pulls a 2006-style credit ease…this changes things.   QUESTION:  How do you know you that you are past mid-stage in a housing bubble?  QUESTION:  How do you know that the overlords are worried about a housing market correction? QUESTION:  How do you know the keepers-of-the-economy are worried that the mortgage-refi-capital-conveyor-belt coming to a
IF, the RedFin Housing Demand Index are a remotely accurate representation of demand in core markets around the nation, which I suspect, and not a company-specific, hard down-shift in performance, THEN… Bottom line: The housing demand pig is through the python and Q2-4 will looking nothing like Q1. SUMMARY The Q1’17 demand pull-forward effect from
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