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For years, all of my fundamental, mid-to-long term housing market research and forecasts were predicated on “more of the same”, as far out as I cared to predict; a structurally broken sector on a sand foundation being supported by ever-increasing Gov’t & personal debt, ever-decreasing cost of capital – increased leverage — and never-ending Central
The party’s over…“This” central-bank and debt-induced, unorthodox capital and liquidity fueled, mega-housing bubble 2.0 is now an orphan; 2nd episode of the season’s “Million Dollar Listing, LA” was gloomy; night & day vs last season’s ‘exuberance’; SoCal higher-end supply surging, demand abysmal (was performing better than other core, higher end markets such as NYC, Miami,
Today’s Bloomberg article highlights the exact same downtrend, as has been occurring in numerous other core markets, nationally. Years ago, these markets were the catalysts for bubble 2.0 (that began to blow not coincidentally around the exact same time in late ’11 that the Fed rolled out Twist ops).  They are also the catalysts /
My fresh July housing data are in and mostly processed. But, before I release data on the sudden, mid-summer weakness, which supports my “pulled forward season and back-half air-pocket” thesis, I am releasing this note on supply, which is surging in key, leading indicating markets. Bottom line:  In some of California’s most popular and economically